YorkSpace

YorkSpace is York University's Institutional Repository. It supports York University's Senate Policy on Open Access by providing York community members with a place to preserve their research online in an institutional context.

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Communities in YorkSpace

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Recent Submissions

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    Machine Learning Prediction of Conflict-Driven Refugee Migration: Evidence from Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine
    (2026) Fernandes, Gabriela
    Refugee migration is a complex global phenomenon influenced by geopolitical instability, economic conditions, and historical migration networks. Accurate prediction of refugee movement patterns is essential for humanitarian planning and policy development. In this study, we develop a machine learning framework to predict refugee migration flows using historical refugee statistics, conflict indicators, and macroeconomic variables. Using datasets spanning 2000–2023, including refugee statistics from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and socioeconomic indicators from the World Bank, we construct predictive models to estimate migration flow intensity between origin and destination countries. The analysis focuses on three large-scale conflicts: the Syrian Civil War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Migration flows between origin and destination countries from 2000–2023 were analyzed to quantify displacement surges associated with conflict onset. Multiple machine learning algorithms were evaluated, including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Long Short-Term Memory networks, Graph Neural Networks, and Transformer models. Results indicate that classical ensemble models outperform deep learning approaches in this dataset, with Random Forest achieving the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC = 0.56). Feature importance analysis suggests that historical migration patterns and economic indicators are stronger predictors of refugee flows than conflict intensity alone. These findings highlight the importance of structural migration networks in shaping refugee movement and demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods to support humanitarian forecasting and migration policy planning.
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    “You probably shouldn't trust me”: Exploring Socialist and/or Abolitionist Social Worker Resistance in the Workplace
    (2025) Nematollahi, Hiva
    Social work is a profession deeply entrenched in sustaining settler-colonial and capitalist hegemony (de Montigny, 2022; Fortier & Hon-Sing Wong, 2019; Jeffery, 2002; Thobani, 2007).This contradictory positioning has led to ongoing tensions between enacting care and exerting control within social work practice (Chambon, 1999). This research explored how socialist and/or abolitionist social workers use their political worldviews and values when engaging in social work practice, and more specifically in resistance strategies in the workplace. Specific emphasis was placed on exploring how these social workers engage with institutional processes that are carceral in nature, alongside how they conceptualize their organizing/activism efforts within their own social work practice. Using in-depth semi-structured interviews, it was found that social workers utilize various strategies and tactics to negotiate their professionalized power. This active process of negotiation was best described through the notion of a “dance” between the client and social worker to mitigate the risk of a breach in confidentiality. Among socialist and/or abolitionist practitioners in private practice, resistance was more reflective through the incorporation of political commitments within individualized client care. This was presented through modalities oriented towards somatic processing and self-discovery, as opposed to skills-based approaches found within Evidence-Based Practice. Participants also shared how politicizing therapy operates through orienting clients to build community and engage in organizing/activism work. Lastly, participants displayed a tendency to compartmentalize responsibility when trespassing their ethics, which is attributed to the contradictory terrain of socialist and/or abolitionist social work under a settler-colonial and capitalist system.
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    Ontario Health Teams: Negotiating Social Work Values in an Emerging Integrated Care System
    (2025) Harding, David
    Ontario Health Teams (OHTs) represent Ontario's most recent shift towards integrated care. OHTs are underpinned by a common value framework, the "Quintuple Aim." The present study investigates how the Quintuple Aim enables and constrains the work of value-driven professionals, in this case social workers, working within the OHT system. An institutional ethnography was conducted at a Community Health Centre in a metropolitan OHT. Data was collected during six in-depth interviews with both social workers and management staff. Thematic analyses were performed from which four themes emerged: 1) participants' commitment to health equity, 2) issues with provincial leadership & neoliberalism within OHTs, 3) social workers’ disengagement from OHTs, and 4) an on-going need for service integration. Findings suggest misalignment between the values espoused in the Quintuple Aim and providers’ testimonies, most notably in the domains of health equity and provider experiences. Findings are interpreted through a critical neoliberal lens and particular attention is paid to how performance evaluation targets constitute an unspoken set of values within OHTs. Implications are discussed for social work practice and integrated care practices within OHTs.
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    “And so, my heart was constantly just wanting to be home, but nowhere was home”: A Study into the Voices of Displaced Regent Park Residents
    (2025) Dapaah, Cindy-May
    “A united racialized community to exist on its own terms and to be subject to the same rights and freedoms as the greater white community, remains inconceivable” (Nelson, 2002, p. 129). The gentrification of Regent Park illustrates this reality. This study asks: How is gentrification used as a neoliberal tool to dismantle racialized communities? This research draws on Critical Race Theory (CRT), post-structuralism and spatial theories to examine how policies like “social mix” mask displacement as revitalization. This paper will analyze how redevelopment policies have perpetuated systemic inequities while disrupting vital networks of solidarity and care. Through stories of displaced community members from Phase 2 of the revitalization project, this qualitative study highlights the cultural wealth, resilience, and deep-rooted sense of belonging in Regent Park before gentrification. The findings challenge the logic of social mix and neoliberal assumptions that low-income communities cannot thrive without proximity to whiteness or middle-class norms. Ultimately, this study argues that the erasure of community was not an accidental outcome but a systemic effect of redevelopment efforts that prioritize market interests over the lives of racialized residents.
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    A Scoping Review: General Mental Health Among Post-Secondary Students in Bangladesh
    (2025) Barua, Arshi
    Globally, post-secondary students can be seen to struggle with their mental health and this is no different for post-secondary students living in Bangladesh which is a lower-middle-income country. Mental health research in Bangladesh is limited and, thus, the purpose of this study is to capture all the existing literature pertaining to the general mental health of post-secondary students in Bangladesh through a scoping review. This study is guided by the scoping review model outlined by Arksey and O’Malley (2005). This study has searched and screened the following 4 online databases: PsycINFO (Proquest), Social Work Abstracts (Ovid), ERIC (OCUL), and Web of Science with yielding the selection of 19 studies. The key findings indicate that prevalent mental health challenges amongst post-secondary students in Bangladesh includes suicide, suicidal behaviours, depression, anxiety, stress, and struggles with overall mental health. Common mental health factors include being a female, financial and economic condition, academic year of study, history of mental health both personal and familial, substance addiction, family, social media and screen time, academic performance, past negative experience, and romantic relationships. In conclusion, this scoping review has found that the general mental health of post-secondary students in Bangladesh is poor and connected to multiple factors.