Israel and South Africa: Prospects for Their Transitions

The current transformations in both Israel and South Africa are driven more by global economics than domestic politics. This implies that the peace process in the case of Israel, and the transition toward a non-racial democracy and open economy in South Africa are much more resilient to political setbacks than is commonly assumed. By the same token, however, both processes are vulnerable to commodity price instability. Over the next few years, the prospects for both transitions are good. The longer-term outlook, however, will depend on whether standards of living rise in the Middle-East and employment growth accelerates in South Africa.