The Relationship between Ecosystem Services, Human Health and Well-being and its Implication for Environmental Planning: An Agent-Based Model and Geosimulation

A tremendous number of studies have examined the relationship between ecosystem health and human health and well-being, especially in urban settings. The project builds upon a nation-wide Canadian study by Crouse et al. (2017) which explored the correlations between urban greenness and cause-specific mortalities using Cox proportional hazard ratios. Crouse et al. (2017) concluded that increased urban greenness in proximity to participants’ residences is associated with decreases in the risks of cause-specific mortalities. The goal of this project is to develop an agent-based model using NetLogo to explore the relationship between ecosystem services, human health and well-being in the Credit River Watershed (CRW). The model utilizes a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to establish values of urban greenness in the CRW. Then, hazard ratios are calculated from these NDVI values based on the association observed in the Crouse et al. (2017) study. The model uses a tree-planting, or greening, agent that changes the values of greenness in the study area, thus decreasing hazard ratios. The greening agent is counteracted by a developer agent which converts land adjacent to residential areas into new development. Consequently, this action decreases greenness and increases hazard ratios. This interaction occurs overtime and the results are shown through geosimulation. The model also provides a set of user-defined parameters that modify the nature of agent interactions and the underlying rules governing the model. Overall, the model serves as an educational and decision-support tool for stakeholders in the CRW, including residents, municipal planners, conservation authorities, and policy makers.