Crossing borders without papers: how food insecurity fuels irregular migration in the MENA region

Abstract

This paper examines how food insecurity shapes migration aspirations and their orientation toward irregular migration in the Middle East and North Africa. Using micro-data from the seventh wave of the Arab Barometer, we construct an experiential index of food insecurity and distinguish between overall migration aspirations and willingness to consider irregular migration among prospective migrants. Probit and sample-selection probit estimates show that food insecurity is positively associated with the probability of considering emigration and, conditional on having considered emigration, with willingness to migrate without the required papers. These findings suggest that food insecurity is related not only to the formation of migration aspirations, but also to the orientation of these aspirations toward irregular pathways among prospective migrants. The results remain robust across subsamples, alternative measures of food-insecurity intensity, and instrumental-variable probit specifications using Covid-related assistance as instruments for food insecurity. These findings suggest that development and humanitarian aid aimed at reducing food insecurity can play a critical role in mitigating irregular migration pressures and should be integrated into broader migration and development strategies.