Return intentions among Ukrainian refugees in Europe: A Cross-National Study

Abstract

This study examines the return intentions of Ukrainian refugee women who fled to various European countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By analysing data from the cross-national OneUA survey, which included over 18,000 respondents in eight European countries, this research investigates the interplay of contextual, compositional, and cross-level interaction effects on their intentions to return to Ukraine. Our findings reveal notable country differences in return intentions, with Ukrainian women in the Netherlands and Germany displaying the lowest intentions to return, while those in Moldova and Romania showing the highest. Individual-level effects, encompassing factors such as level of education, language skills, partnership status, and region of origin play a significant role in shaping return intentions, yet do not explain the observed country variations. Furthermore, we find that individual-level effects are remarkably consistent across different European countries, suggesting that country- and individual-level conditions independently shape return intentions. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the complexities underlying refugees' return intentions, shedding light on both the broad influences of country context and the significance of individual characteristics.