Approaching the Electrostate: Leaders and Laggards in the Global Transition to Net Zero Electricity

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement are two legally binding international frameworks that outline commitments to remaining within safe levels of planetary warming. Central to these frameworks are Net Zero commitments—which include pledges to decarbonize national electricity infrastructure—communicated through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Previous research has examined what enables large-scale transitions; what constrains a country from dismantling its fossil fuel infrastructure; and which independent variables may influence clean energy adoption. However, research to date has not examined a large sample of countries across an extended period with multiple variables and categorization schemas in one rigorous analysis. Using country-level electricity data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) between 2000 and 2023/2024, this paper applies Spearman rank correlation and data visualization methods across 144 countries and 15 independent variables to determine not only which countries are decarbonizing their electricity systems the swiftest—measured through an original composite metric, the Electro-Transition Score (ETS)—but which variables and institutional alignments most strongly correlate with that progress. This paper determines that, beyond eight existing electrostates—defined as >99.5 percent clean energy generation (CEG)—countries within certain institutional blocs are accelerating faster than others, and that governance and development variables outweigh resource endowment in their association with CEG. However, outliers arise within the data that challenge the rigidity of these assertions, indicating that clean energy adoption is not one-size-fits-all. This paper thus illustrates the global picture of the ongoing 21st century energy transition from once-dominant fossil fuels to that of clean energy systems.