Transmission Dynamics And Control Of Cholera In Africa: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

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dc.contributor.advisorKong, Jude
dc.contributor.authorAdeniyi, Ebenezer Olayinka
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T10:50:04Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T10:50:04Z
dc.date.copyright2024-11-14
dc.date.issued2025-04-10
dc.date.updated2025-04-10T10:50:04Z
dc.degree.disciplineMathematics & Statistics
dc.degree.levelMaster's
dc.degree.nameMA - Master of Arts
dc.description.abstractBackground: Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, is a global health threat, with outbreaks surging since 2021, particularly in Africa. In 2024, over 13 African countries faced outbreaks worsened by climatic events, poverty, and weak healthcare systems. A shortage of vaccines further complicates control efforts. Objective: This study uses data science, machine learning, and modelling to analyze cholera dynamics, identify outbreak drivers, and propose targeted interventions. Methods: A compartmental model with Bayesian estimation analyzed cholera data from eight African countries. Sensitivity analysis identified key transmission parameters, and hierarchical clustering grouped countries by outbreak characteristics. Results: Average R0 was 2.0, ranging from 1.41 (Zimbabwe) to 2.80 (Mozambique). Factors like infection rate and human shedding increased R0, while recovery rate reduced it. Clustering identified three outbreak drivers: natural disasters, conflict, and sanitation issues. Conclusion: Tailored, data-driven interventions are critical for effective cholera management across diverse contexts.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10315/42813
dc.languageen
dc.rightsAuthor owns copyright, except where explicitly noted. Please contact the author directly with licensing requests.
dc.subject.keywordsCholera transmission
dc.subject.keywordsModified iSIRB models
dc.subject.keywordsInfectious disease modelling
dc.subject.keywordsBasic reproduction number
dc.titleTransmission Dynamics And Control Of Cholera In Africa: A Mathematical Modelling Approach
dc.typeElectronic Thesis or Dissertation

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