The ecological-economic possibilities of a non-rapid energy transition

With signs and symptoms of climate change continuing to worsen, it is widely accepted that A) our economic systems must shift away from carbon-emitting sources of energy and B) this transition must be rapid. In 2022, the US congress passed two major spending bills aimed at facilitating such a transition through expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

While plenty of studies show that a rapid energy transition is both physically possible and environmentally justified, the speed of this transition is rarely examined for its secondary economic effects. Based on previous studies we have shown that the higher the speed of the transition, the greater the extractive capacity (materials per unit time) would be needed. We are thus motivated to ask: What are the ecological possibilities of a non-rapid transition?

Methods: We first establish a method for defining and measuring the extraction rates required to enable a rapid transition of vehicle fueling and electricity generation/transmission infrastructure. Here, we build on our existing work forecasting EV infrastructure scale-up requirements. Then we pair this information with existing data on material intensities and established knowledge about the useful life of various critical material extraction facilities, providing an estimate of the total resource extraction enabled by the transition. We build a probabilistic model of total material footprint enabled by the energy transition, meant as a proof of concept regarding the importance of energy infrastructure transition rate.

Results and Discussion: Accepting a rapid transition may lead to an unsustainable level of demand lock-in, compared to a slower one. It could also lead to further delays in taking united, global-scale policy action to set and enforce resource demand limits. These second-order effects alone represent reasons to be skeptical, not about the need for energy transition, but about its rapidity.