Adolescent Vaping Behaviors: Exploring the Dynamics of a Social Contagion Model

Vaping, or the use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), is an ongoing issue for public health. The rapid increase in e-cigarette usage, particularly among adolescents, has often been referred to as an epidemic. Drawing upon this epidemiological analogy between vaping and infectious diseases as a theoretical framework, we aim to study this issue through mathematical modeling to better understand the underlying dynamics. In this thesis, we present a deterministic compartmental model of adolescent e-cigarette smoking which accounts for social influences on initiation, relapse, and cessation behaviors. We use results from a sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters on various response variables to identify key influences on system dynamics and simplify the model into one that can be analyzed more thoroughly. Through steady state and stability analyses and simulations of the model, we conclude that (1) social influences from and on temporary quitters are not important in overall model dynamics and (2) social influences from permanent quitters can have a significant impact on long-term system dynamics, including the reduction of the smokers' equilibrium and emergence of multiple smoking waves.