Analyses of environmental factors for the persistence of Myrmica rubra (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in green spaces of the Greater Toronto Area and applications of ecological niche/species distribution models

Palearctic native European fire ant Myrmica rubra have been sighted frequently across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in recent years. Although their populations in the GTA are fragmented, this non native invasive ant species has potential to expand well beyond their current habitats. In order to ascertain the ecological conditions for the persistence of M. rubra, an extensive study was conducted at conservation areas across the GTA.

Based on some of the ecological factors required for M. rubra, ecological niche models (ENMs)/species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed on 3 different scales using occurrence data for better mitigation and prevention of this invasive species and to predict their future potential geographic distributions in the face of climate change.

From an array of regression analyses, it was found that soil surface moisture level (p = 0.005, odds ratio = 1.04), soil surface temperature (p = 0.001, Odds ratio = 1.14), and altitude (p = 0.001, odds ratio = 0.99) are essential for M. rubra to persist. It was also found that M. rubra does displace other ant species as well as arthropods, and this is in agreement with the results from other publications. Based on the ENMs/SDMs, this non native invasive species has potential to spread beyond the current distribution range, and susceptible areas should be monitored for future invasion and expansion.