Conflict, drought, and displacement: determinants of return intentions among South Sudanese refugees

Abstract

Refugees’ return decisions are shaped by past trauma, present conditions, and future aspirations. This study examines how pre-flight reasons and exile circumstances influence return intentions and timing among South Sudanese refugees. Using UNHCR’s 2019 Regional Intention Survey for 6,547 households across six asylum countries, the analysis develops an integrated framework linking pre-displacement experiences, host-country contexts, and individual vulnerabilities. Multinomial and binary logit models reveal that displacement drivers create durable path dependencies: refugees fleeing generalised violence show higher return propensity, while those experiencing targeted persecution face persistent barriers even amid improved security. Drought-displaced refugees remain undecided. Host-country policies significantly shape outcomes: progressive regimes like Uganda reduce the likelihood of return by facilitating local integration, while restrictive environments like Ethiopia act as push factors. Exile duration introduces non-linear dynamics, with return intentions peaking at 4–6 years before declining as exile capital accumulates. Heterogeneity emerges by pre-flight occupation, gender, and legal status. Agricultural workers demonstrate strong short-term return intentions, whereas professionals delay or forgo return. Legal documentation reduces return intentions by enhancing integration prospects.