Greening the Saskatchewan Grid

Saskatchewan is home to one of the most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensive electricity sectors in Canada. To contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, and comply with Canadian coal-fired electricity regulations, the province must transform its electricity sector in the coming decades. This dissertation asks, what is the cost of reducing Saskatchewans electricity sector GHG emissions by 80% or more by 2050, using a mix of renewable electricity generating technologies? A renewable focused Greening the Saskatchewan Grid scenario is compared with a business-as-usual scenario and alternative pathways for reducing GHG emissions. Scenarios are selected using a linear programming model called the Saskatchewan Investment Model (SIM). The resulting scenarios are then tested using the Will-It-Run-Electricity Model (WIRE) to understand whether a given electricity generation mix can adequately meet hourly electricity demand. Scenarios are compared using indicators such as electricity cost, GHG emissions, land impact, water impact, and radioactive waste, and sustainability criteria such as path dependence. It is found that a Greening the Grid scenario can reduce electricity sector GHG emissions to near zero levels by 2040. There is an added financial cost for taking this leadership path, but the cost of the Greening the Grid scenario becomes comparable to competing scenarios when an escalating carbon price is assumed. This dissertation also presents the results of a deliberative modelling exercise. Three workshops were held in Saskatchewan that brought together diverse participants interested in the future of the Saskatchewan electricity system. The goal of the workshops was to understand whether deliberation, supported by an interactive version of SIM, could encourage shared understanding of the barriers to and opportunities for expanding renewable energy in Saskatchewan. Workshop participants did not shift their positions to a great extent, except to find consensus that there are political and policy barriers to renewable energy expansion. This research contributes to the energy transitions literature by providing a case study of the costs and barriers faced when pursuing a renewable energy focused electricity system. It also contributes to the field of deliberative ecological economics and provides an example of an ecological economics approach to energy policy modelling.