An Alternative Agricultural Future for a Maitland Valley sub-watershed

It is well established that conventional agriculture imposes external costs on society and reduces the many benefits that agroecological systems produce, especially in highly cultivated watersheds where farm fields and larger landscape elements alike have been compromised and simplified. Conserving soil, water and biodiversity is essential to improve the ecosystem services that sustainable agroecosystems provide, including food, moderate and sufficient water flows, filtration of wastes and purification of surface and ground waters, and habitat for wildlife. Best management practices and landscape conservation objectives, when combined with support and financial incentives can reward farmers’ provision of these multiple benefits. Organic farming integrates many ‘best management practices’ in a holistic approach to improving the farm environment by minimizing external inputs and fostering natural processes.

Future scenarios are a creative way to explore the impact of alternative land management approaches in a realistic manner to probe potential economic and ecological impacts over time and can be used to improve decision-making and perspective on the likely outcomes of distinct policy trajectories. This study took a future scenarios approach to exploring a sub-watershed level transition to organic agriculture in the Middle Maitland sub-watershed above Listowel, Ontario, combining geospatial, environmental, ecological, agricultural, economic and institutional factors and employing GIS and Enterprise Budgeting methods. The model permitted an assessment of some of the potential enhancements in the levels of ecosystem services provided by the farming area, combined with a model of annual net returns and a set of incentives designed to reward ecosystem services from farming over a ten-year period.

The organic scenario displayed the expected fluctuations in returns over the transition period, and beef farmers (both conventional and organic) and stockless farmers (organic) faced significant financial difficulty; overall, ten year returns saw organic receive higher net returns than conventional for 5 of 6 farm types. Program payments over ten years for the conventional and organic scenarios amounted to $1 million and $1.5 million respectively, however organic program total ten year costs to government and conservation foundations increased to $2.25 million when considering more aggressive support for beef and stockless farmers. Preliminary estimates from the model indicate significant expected improvements with the organic scenario above the conventional scenario for several ecosystem services, as well as higher satisfaction of landscape conservation targets established by authorities to achieve a ‘healthy watershed’ in the Maitland Valley. This work will set the stage for further alternative agriculture scenario modeling for the Maitland Valley in other research initiatives.