Survival rates for Cassin's and Rhinoceros Auklets at Triangle Island, British Columbia.

We estimated survival of Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhincam onocerata) from recapture rates during 1994-1997. For both species, a two "age"-class model provided the best fit. Estimates of local adult survival were significantly lower for Cassin's Auklet (0.672 +/- 0.047) than for Rhinoceros Auklet (0.829 +/- 0.095). Our estimate of survival appears lower than that required for the maintenance of a stable population of Cassin's Auklets. The available information indicates that a low survival rate and a declining population at Triangle Island are plausible, particularly given the recent age scale oceanographic changes which have occurred in the North Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, additional mark-recapture data and indexes of population size are required to rigorously demonstrate population declines at the world's largest Cassin's Auklet colony.