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Cost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canada

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dc.contributor.authorMoyles, Iain
dc.contributor.authorHeffernan, Jane
dc.contributor.authorKong, Jude
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-05T14:56:05Z
dc.date.available2021-03-05T14:56:05Z
dc.date.issued2021-02-24
dc.description.abstractA mathematical model of COVID-19 is presented where the decision to increase or decrease social distancing is modelled dynamically as a function of the measured active and total cases as well as the perceived cost of isolating. Along with the cost of isolation, we define an overburden healthcare cost and a total cost. We explore these costs by adjusting parameters that could change with policy decisions. We observe that two disease prevention practices, namely increasing isolation activity and increasing incentive to isolate do not always lead to optimal health outcomes. We demonstrate that this is due to the fatigue and cost of isolation. We further demonstrate that an increase in the number of lock-downs, each of shorter duration can lead to minimal costs. Our results are compared with case data in Ontario, Canada from March to August 2020 and details of expanding the results to other regions are presented.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNSERC Discovery grant no. 2019-06337 NSERC Discovery grant and Discovery Accelerator Supplementen_US
dc.identifier.citationMoyles I. R., Heffernan J. M. and Kong J. D. . 2021Cost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canada R. Soc. open sci.8201770201770 http://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201770en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201770en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10315/38129
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherThe Royal Society Publishingen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.articlehttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201770#d1e4479en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjecthealthcare burdenen_US
dc.subjectcost analysisen_US
dc.subjecttesting impacten_US
dc.subjectsocial distancingen_US
dc.subjectmathematical modellingen_US
dc.titleCost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canadaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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